Analysis - June Employment Report

Dirk van Dijk wrote a great analysis of the June employment report for Yahoo! FINANCE.

A couple interesting quotes:

"With total employment now 7.311 million below where it was when the recession started, even if we were to add 250,000 jobs per month (which is better than was averaged in the Clinton second term, one of the best periods for job creation in recent history) it would still take us more than 29 months to get back to the December 2007 level of jobs, or not until November 2012. It is far more likely that we will not see a new employment peak until 2014."

"Manufacturing employment had been in a secular decline for about the last 30 year or so. We have now seen manufacturing employment expand for six straight months. The last time the economy could make that claim was in March of 1998."

"Of particular interest is temporary employees. They are an important leading indicator of where the job market is going. After a recession when demand starts to pick up, employers are not really sure if it is going to last. Thus they are reluctant to bring on new full-time employees. The first thing they will do is work the remaining employees harder, particularly if they had previously cut back on the hours. The next step is to call up ... [a staffing firm] and bring on a temp. Only after the employer is more confident that the upturn is for real will he bring on a full-time permanent employee. In May, temporary workers rose by 20,500, on top of gains of 31,100 in May and 23,300 in April."

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